哈佛大学概率与数理统计课件.pptVIP

Why is Probability Theory Not Ancient? Religious beliefs Or No concept of equally likely outcomes ? ? ? Playing Fair With a Biased Coin Unequal probability of H and T: p ? ? Probability of H is p Probability of T is 1-p Toss twice and ignore pairs HH and TT Probability of HT is p(1-p) Probability of TH is (1-p)p Call combination HT ‘Newheads’ Call combination TH ‘Newtails’ Newheads and Newtails are equally likely Efficiency is poor (50%) – discard the HH and TT s Faking Random Sequences THHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTTTHTHTHTHTHTHH THHTHTHTHHTHTHHHTTHHTHTTHHHTHTTT HTHHTHTTTHTHTHTHHTHTTTHHTHTHTHTT Winn