2016年11月EIA原油市场月度报告.pdfVIP

November 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Forecast highlights Global liquid f uels • U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is more than 0.1 million b/d higher than in last month’s STEO. • EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/ b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook, with NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggesting that a range from $35/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in February 2017 at the 95% confidence level. • Higher crude oil prices contributed to U.S. average retail regular gasoline prices in October increasing by 3 cents/gallon (gal) from September to an average of $2.25/gal. With the switch to less-expensive winter gasoline blends and the typical seasonal decline in gasoline consumption, EIA expects gasoline prices to fall to an average of $1.97/gal in January . Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.13/gal in 2016 and $2.27/gal in 2017. • Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.8 million b/d in 2016 and 0.5 million b/d in 2017. Natural gas • Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.4 Bcf/d dec