基于bp神经网络的短期负荷预测研究大学论文.docVIP

学 号 毕 业 课 题 基于BP神经网络的短期负荷预测研究 学生姓名 院 电气工程学院 专业班级 电子信息工程（2）班 指导教师 二 一 五 年 五 月 II 第一章 绪论 2 1.1 课题研究背景 2 1.2 课题研究的现状 2 1.3 本课题研究的主要内容 3 第二章 传统短期负荷预测的方法 5 2.1 回归分析法 5 2.2 指数平滑法 5 2.3 专家系统方法 5 第三章 神经网络 7 3.1 神经网络简介 7 3.2 神经网络模型及其特征 7 3.2.1 人工神经元模型 7 3.2.2 神经网络的分类 9 3.2.3 神经网络的特征及要素 9 3.3 神经网络及其结构分析 9 3.3.1 BP神经网络的原理 9 3.3.2 BP神经网络的算法设计 10 第四章 负荷预测的实例分析 12 4.1 回归分析法 12 4.2 BP神经网络的软测量模型的建立 13 4.3 小结 19 总结 20 致 谢 22 附录：参考程序 23 摘 要 关键词：电力系统；短期负荷预测；BP神经网络 Research of forecasting Short-term load base on BP neural network Abstract With the development and progress of our countrys power grid and power system, The short-term load forecasting (STLF) of electric system is one of the important routines for power dispatch and utility departments. It is a very important aspect of power system to ensure operating safely economically steadily and achieve scientific management in the power system, and accurate load forecasting is helpful to the security and stability of power system as well as saving its generation costs.With the establishment and development of the power market, Due to short-term load forecasting plays an important role in the developing power market, so you need to continue to study, to promote a higher accuracy of short-term load forecasting. Electric power is affected by many factors, such as current load status, weather status, and etc, For improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting, This paper introduces a variety of traditional method and BP neural network ,This paper adopted the Regression Analysis and BP neural network method, with the main factors influencing the power load of meteorological parameters, short-term load forecasting model is established ,And analyzed samples of several specific problems in the data processing. In the end the paper give some prosp