决策学(国外英语资料).docVIP

决策学(国外英语资料) 1998 Decision Theory and method exercises, 1998 Chapter 1 Introduction I. what is decision making? What is decision analysis? What are the characteristics of decision problems? What are the elements of a decision problem? Two. Use decision trees to represent the following questions: 1. fire insurance 2. perishable goods purchase problem 3. drilling problems: a company owns a piece of land may have oil, the company can own drilling, can also be rented to other mining company; if the rental lease of land, there are two forms of unconditional rental, rent 450 thousand yuan in rent conditions rental, depending on the production of 200 thousand barrels or output: above, a barrel commission 5 yuan; the yield of less than 200 thousand barrels when no rent. The drilling cost is 750 thousand yuan, and the additional oil production equipment fee is 250 thousand yuan. The oil price is 15 yuan / barrel By simplifying, the output of the well can be divided into 4 states: oil free, oil producing 50 thousand barrels, oil producing 200 thousand barrels, oil producing 500 thousand barrels Three, design drilling problems as follows: each drilling costs 100 thousand yuan, oil oil sales revenue of 1 million yuan, the probability of oil is 0.2, the probability of no oil is 0.8. when the non oil drilling to ask? If the stop drilling, several times still no oil? The second chapter is the subjective probability and the prior distribution (Subjective Probability Prior Distribution) Why do we introduce subjective probability? Try to compare the similarities and differences between the subjective and objective probabilities How to set a priori distribution? Two, 1., 6.3.4 reading decision analysis 2. a group of two people, one person acts as a decision, a decision analysis as is the national economic growth rate next year prior distribution of dialogue, and draw the curve. The dialogue in different roles, will next year through dialogue prior distribution of the rising rate.