财务管理 第二十二章 课件.ppt

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ? 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Key Concepts and Skills Identify behavioral biases and understand how they impact decision-making Understand how framing effects can result in inconsistent and/or incorrect decisions Understand how the use of heuristics can lead to suboptimal financial decisions Recognize the shortcomings and limitations to market efficiency from the behavioral finance viewpoint 22-* Chapter Outline Introduction to Behavioral Finance Biases Framing Effects Heuristics Behavioral Finance and Market Efficiency Market Efficiency and the Performance of Professional Money Managers 22-* Poor Outcomes A suboptimal result in an investment decision can stem from one of two issues: You made a good decision, but an unlikely negative event occurred You simply made a bad decision (i.e., cognitive error) 22-* Overconfidence Example: 80 percent of drivers consider themselves to be above average Business decisions require judgment of an unknown future Overconfidence results in assuming forecasts are more precise than they actually are 22-* Overoptimism Example: overstating projected cash flows from a project, resulting in a high NPV Overestimate the likelihood of a good outcome Not the same as overconfidence, as someone could be overconfident of a negative outcome (i.e., “overpessimistic”) 22-* Confirmation Bias More weight is given to information that agrees with a preexisting opinion Contradictory information is deemed less reliable 22-* Framing Effects How a question is framed may impact the answer given or choice selected Loss aversion (or break-even effect) Retain losing investments too long (violation of the sunk cost principle) House money More likely to risk money that has been “won” than that which has been “earned” (even though both represent wealth) 22-* Heuristics Rules of thumb, mental shortcuts The “Affect” Heuristic Reliance on instinct or emotions Representativeness Heuristic Reliance on