集对分析在区域大气环境风险评价中的应用研究.pdf

中国环境科学 2016,36(2) ：634~640 China Environmental Science 集对分析在区域大气环境风险评价中的应用研究 * 邢永健,王 旭 ,杜 航 (沈阳航空航天大学安全工程学院,辽宁 沈阳 110136) 摘要：应用集对分析法对事故状态下有毒有害气体环境风险分布建立数学模型,通过南京化工园区的实例分析,把评价区域大气环境风险 划分为 5 个等级,并对差异不确定系数 i 取值进行讨论, 以反映不同状态下的大气环境风险分布水平.研究结果显示,i =0.5,i =-0.5 取值方法 1 2 简便,且此时的区域大气环境风险状态相对符合实际,可为优化土地利用规划和完善环境风险防控措施提供依据. 关键词：集对分析法；区域大气风险；风险叠加；差异不确定系数 i 中图分类号：X820.4 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2016)02-0634-07 * Set pair analysis for regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment. XING Yong-jian, WANG Xu , DU Hang (School of Safety Engineering, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang 110136, China). China Environmental Science, 2016,36(2) ：634~640 Abstract ：Because multiple sources release multiple stressors and these stressors affect multiple habitats and endpoints, the spatial information of interaction is limited and uncertain. Set pair analysis (SPA) can effectively describe and deal with the environmental risk systems with limited and uncertain spatial information and model the distribution of environmental risk of poisonous gases after accidents. In this paper, the regional atmospheric environmental risk of Nanjing Chemical Industry Park was analysed by SPA model. In order to describe the distribution of atmospheric environmental risks in different conditions, this paper classified the risks into 5 levels and discussed the value of variation uncertainty coefficient. Under i =0.5, i =-0.5, the analysis is not complex and the level of regional atmospheric 1 2 environment risks is close to the actual situation. The analys