带延迟过境OD 流的回归估计 - 交通运输工程学报.PDF

第4 卷　第3 期 交 通 运 输 工 程 学 报 Vol.4　No.3 2004 年9月 Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering Sept.2004 :1671-1637(2004)03-0059-05 O- 黎茂盛, 史　峰 ( , 　410075) 　:为带延迟过境O- 流估计问题建立 概率分布约束的多元线性回归模型, 设计 求解算 法, 利用这 个模型分别估计出驶入车流量、过境车流量占路段车流量的百分比和流出车流量的大 小, 并且对模型进行 样本数据有误差时的抗差分析。结果发现当路段交通量数据有不超过3% 的误差以及路段上不同去向交通流量的比例有较小摆动时, 该模型总体结果能达到 8%的相对误 差精度, 具有较好的抗干扰能力, 是可行的。 :交通规划;O- 流;回归估计;过境流;延迟交通流 :U491.112　　　:A Recursive estimation of O-D matrix through a region with lagged traffics LI Mao-sheng, SHI Feng (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China) Abstract:This paper gave a multi-linear recursive model with probability-constraints, and designed an algorithm following the viewpoint of the model for estimating the O- matrix through a region with lagged traffics.The stability of the model was analyzed in the conditions of experimentation errors.The estimation error of the model is about 8%, when the error of traffic flow is less 3%, which shows that the model is feasible.3 tabs, 2 figs, 8 refs. Key words:traffic planning;O- matrix;recursive estimation;flow through a region;lagged traffics Author resume:LI Mao-sheng (1969-), male, doctoral student, 86-731-2655454, maosheng.li @163.com. i , t (t 0　　 =1, …, d )j h (i,j =1, 2, …, n;t=1, …, d ), jit , i xi ( 。O- , d ), , 。O- j y (j , , d )。 、。 , , O- : 。O- , 2 n , ( , , 10 min) i 、 ()。 f g (i =1, 2, …, n ), i i , :2003-10-27 :(1969-), , , , , . 60