Ch12Uncertainty范里安中级微观,上海交通大学,赵旭 朱保华)概要1.ppt

Chapter Twelve Uncertainty Uncertainty is Pervasive What is uncertain in economic systems? tomorrow’s prices future wealth future availability of commodities present and future actions of other people. Uncertainty is Pervasive What are rational responses to uncertainty? buying insurance (health, life, auto) a portfolio of contingent consumption goods. States of Nature Possible states of Nature: “car accident” (a) “no car accident” (na). Accident occurs with probability ?a, does not with probability ?na ; ?a + ?na = 1. Accident causes a loss of $L. Contingencies A contract implemented only when a particular state of Nature occurs is state-contingent. E.g. the insurer pays only if there is an accident. Contingencies A state-contingent consumption plan is implemented only when a particular state of Nature occurs. E.g. take a vacation only if there is no accident. State-Contingent Budget Constraints Each $1 of accident insurance costs ?. Consumer has $m of wealth. Cna is consumption value in the no-accident state. Ca is consumption value in the accident state. State-Contingent Budget Constraints State-Contingent Budget Constraints State-Contingent Budget Constraints Without insurance, Ca = m - L Cna = m. State-Contingent Budget Constraints State-Contingent Budget Constraints Buy $K of accident insurance. Cna = m - ?K. Ca = m - L - ?K + K = m - L + (1- ?)K. State-Contingent Budget Constraints Buy $K of accident insurance. Cna = m - ?K. Ca = m - L - ?K + K = m - L + (1- ?)K. So K = (Ca - m + L)/(1- ?) State-Contingent Budget Constraints Buy $K of accident insurance. Cna = m - ?K. Ca = m - L - ?K + K = m - L + (1- ?)K. So K = (Ca - m + L)/(1- ?) And Cna = m - ? (Ca - m + L)/(1- ?) State-Contingent Budget Constraints Buy $K of accident insurance. Cna = m - ?K. Ca = m - L - ?K + K = m - L + (1- ?)K. So K = (Ca - m + L)/(1- ?) And Cna = m - ? (Ca - m + L)/(1- ?) I.e. State-Contingent Budget Constraints State-Contingent Budget Constraints State-Contingent Bud