煤制油成本案例分析及产业前景 - 地球学报.pdf

2017 年 1 月 地 球 学 报 Jan. 2017 第38 卷 第 1 期: 109-114 Acta Geoscientica Sinica Vol.38 No.1: 109-114 www.地球学报.com 煤制油成本案例分析及产业前景 1, 2) 2)* 陈子瞻 , 王高尚 1)中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院, 北京 100083; 2) 中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心, 北京 100037 摘 要: 本文基于实际案例, 分析了煤制油的制造成本、销售费用、管理费用、税费成本和财务成本构成, 并 核算了当前条件下, 煤制油的制造成本区间。结论是煤制油产业在国际油价高于 50 美元/桶时具有竞争力, 且其成本具备下降空间。利用波特钻石模型分析了煤制油产业的竞争力和发展前景, 指出煤制油产业的成 长期需要给予和常规油气不同的税收政策。 关键词: 煤制油; 成本; 波特钻石理论模型; 产业竞争力 中图分类号: TQ53; F253 文献标志码: A doi: 10.3975/cagsb.2017.01.16 An Analysis of Cost Case and Industry Prospect of Coal to Liquids CHEN Zi-zhan1, 2), WANG Gao-shang2)* 1) School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences(Beijing), Beijing 100083; 2) Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Ghinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037 S Abstract: Based on the actual case, the authors analyzed the cost of coal to liquids (CTL), which mainly consists G of manufacturing costs, cost of sales, administrative expenses, and tax and financial costs. Then the authors calculated CTL manufacturing cost interval in current conditions. It turns out that the competitiveness of CTL industry can be profitable when the international oil price is higher than 50 US dollars per barrel, and its costs A have decreasing space. Moreover, the competitive power and industrial