兹维博迪金融学第二版课件Chapter06概要1.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * 4000台 少了一行：每年所需营运资本预测值， 0到6时点都是220万。 Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * 一个调整后的情形 此时现金是累积的 (Watch out for IRS penalties in this case!)【？】 假定年增长率销售量2%、单价-3%、固定成本8%（固定成本可能随时间变化，但不随销售量变化） 假定每年分红100万美元【？】 Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * 更多的情形 以下表格是通过一次改变基准模型的一个参数构建起来的： Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Was 15% Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Was 40% Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Was 0% Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Was 75% Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Was $3,100,000 Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * 结论 注意到产品生命力的减少【“一个调整后的情形”】和应要求分红【？】将引起： 早在第5年末就显现的现金流危机， 第6年末负的会计利润， 当折旧的税负利益享受完以后，第8年末严重为负的营运现金流【计算税基（营运利润）时要从销售收入中扣除折旧，项目开始时的固定资产投资第7年末已折旧完，第8年没有折旧】 Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * 图 图是对于试算表的有用补充，因为它能说明模型随某个自变量连续改变的行为 以下的图探索了一个模型 Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Table 6.4 Project Sensitivity to Sales Volume Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * 用试算表做计划的结论： 试算表允许管理层探索由模型输入的随机性引起的扰动 这能引导管理层正确地区分模型中各变量在时间上的优先顺序【“一个调整后的情形”中的降价促销不应优先】 管理层将更早地意识到危险，并将制定出状态依存的计划以避免最坏的结果 Copyright ? 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. ?Publishing as Prentice Hall * 6.7 分析降低成本的项目 收支平衡点（Break-even point）是导致NPV = 0的销售量 内部收益率是使NPV = 0的贴现率 价格B/E是使NPV = 0的单价 回本期（Payback peri