气候变化背景下潮州市早稻产量模型构建与未来趋势分析.pdfVIP

生 物 灾 害 科 学 2017，40(1): 71­75 Biological Disaster Science，Vol. 40，No. 1，2017 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095­3704.2017.01.016 唐凯, 蔡立青, 陆百翔. 气候变化背景下潮州市早稻产量模型构建与未来趋势分析[J]. 生物灾害科学, 2017, 40(1):71­75. 气候变化背景下潮州市早稻产量模型 构建与未来趋势分析 唐 凯，蔡立青，陆百翔 （广东省潮州市气象局，广东 潮州 521000） 摘要：利用潮州市农业气象站1980—2009年资料和潮州市气象观测站1971—2009年均气温、降水等资料，挑选 主要影响潮州市早稻产量的气象因子，采用多元回归的方法构建了潮州市早稻产量模型，并通过验证分析发现 模型的模拟值与实测值的相关性良好；选定CMIP3对未来不同排放情景下做出的三种气候预估，结果表明：潮 州市在21世纪总体预估是有显著变暖变湿趋势；将对未来气候预估得到的相关数据带入早稻产量模型发现在三 种排放情景的下降趋势均通过显著性检验，在低排放的B1情景下潮州市早稻单产的降幅最小。 关键词：早稻产量；气候变化；气候预估；潮州市 + 中图分类号：S511.3 1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095­3704 （2017）01­0071­05 Model Construction and FutureTrendAnalysisof RiceYield Under ClimateChanges in Chaozhou TANG Kai, CAI Li­qing,LU Bai­xiang (Meteorological Bureau of Chaozhou, Chaozhou, Guangdong521000, China) Abstract: Based on data from agricultural meteorological station of Chaozhou collected between 1980­2009 and datafrom meteorological observatory of Chaozhou including mean temperature and precipitation from 1971­2009, we selected the main meteorological factors influencing the yield of early rice in Chaozhou City, and by using multiple regression method we constructedthe model of rice yield in Chaozhou City.Through the verification analysis we found that the simulated values had good correlation with the measured values. By selecting CMIP3,three kinds of climate forecast for the future under different emission scenarios were conducted, andresults showed that theCity of Chaozhou would tend to become significantly warmer and wetter in the twenty­first Century.Related data from future climate esti