2 确定性页岩油气产量递减预测的问题.docVIP

不确定性页岩油气产量递减预测方法 白玉湖 徐兵祥 陈桂华 陈岭 中海油研究总院 摘要：由于页岩储层的特殊性及长水平井多段压裂效果差异化特点，通常针对一个区块（区域）范围给出一条代表期望产量平均值的产量递减曲线预测评价区块（区域）产能。此方法简单、快捷，无需分析单井产量差异，但只能给定确定的产量预测，存在一定的经济评价风险。鉴于此，针对区块具有充分的生产动态数据和没有生产数据两种情况，分别研究了不确定性页岩油气产量递减预测方法。针对第一种情况，预测方法建立在各井参数的概率分布形式分析的基础上获得最终可采储量（EUR）的概率分布；针对第二种情况，预测方法建立在获得地质、油藏、工程参数概率分布基础上。性预测方法应用于实际生产数据分析、评价，效果较好。 Uncertain production decline forecasting method of shale oil and gas Bai yuhu Xu Bingxiang Chen Guihua Feng Ruyong Chen Ling China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Research Institute, Beijing China, 100028 Abstract: Because of the special characteristics of shale reservoir and long horizontal multistage hydraulic fracturing stimulation methods, the type curve for production forecast based on averaging all well production data is proposed to represent expected production forecast of the block. This method has the advantage of simplicity and rapidness, and need not consider the difference of well’s production. However, it only provides a single type curve, which would be a risk for project evaluation. To solve this problem, uncertain production prediction methods based on with and without production data are proposed. For a shale gas block with enough production data, uncertain production prediction is based on type curve parameters probability analysis, with which the probability function of EUR（the estimated ultimately reserve）is obtained. For the shale block without production data, the analytical method is proposed based on analyzing the probability distributions of geology, reservoir and engineering parameters. The proposed uncertain production decline prediction method is applied and results show good effect. Key words：Production data, shale oil and gas, uncertainty, production decline, type curve 1. 前言 在对页岩油气区块进行规模开发前，通常选择甜点区进行先期开发，然后根据页岩油气井生产情况估算产能，从而为未开发区域布井提供产量预测。但由于页岩油气藏储层孔隙是纳米尺度、渗透率为纳达西级，非均质性极强，长水平井多段压裂对页岩储层的强烈改造等原因，导致同一个甜点区内、甚至是同一个井场内的页岩油气井单井产量都会有一定差异，不同区块之间差异更大。通常的做法是针对一个区块，或者某个划定区域范围给出一条产量递减曲线作为该区域或者划定区域范围内所有井期望产