变化环境下水文模拟的几个关键问题与挑战.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2013, 2, 85-95 doi:10.12677/jwrr.2013.22013 Published Online April 2013 (/journal/jwrr.html) Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Environment: * Issues and Challenges 1,2 1 1 Chongyu Xu , Hua Chen , Shenglian Guo 1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 2Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway Email: c.y.xu@geo.uio.no Received: Feb. 28th th th , 2013; revised: Mar. 16 , 2013; accepted: Mar. 28 , 2013 Copyright © 2013 Chongyu Xu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract: This paper discusses the impact of environment change on hydrological cycle, hydrological proc- esses and hydrological modeling. The paper starts with a review of the history of the hydrological models’ development, the current state and the main challenges. Emphases are then paid to the following issues: the non-stationarity of hydrological processes and the rainfall-runoff relationship, the transferability of hydro- logical models (structure and parameters) across time periods, across spatial regions, across spatial and time scales, and coupling of hydrological models with climate models. Keywords: Environment Change; Hydrological Modeling; Ungauged Basins; Non-Stationarity; Spatial an