京津冀交通控制温室气体和污染物的协同效应分析.pdfVIP

Climate Change 气候变化 京津冀交通控制温室气体和  污染物的协同效应分析 谭琦璐，杨宏伟 （国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所，北京100038 ） 摘要：本文以京津冀道路和轨道交通为对象，以协同率作为量化指标，基于情景分析对 京津冀“十三五”期间6 项关键交通政策措施控制温室气体和空气污染物的协同效应大小进行 计算。结果显示，发展城际高速或市郊铁路、加强公路路网建设的协同效应最大，分别为 11.5 和8.8/kgCO2 当量。实施严格的机动车排放控制对排放量的削减最大，由此可以减排3215 万 tCO2 当量和 17.6 万t 空气污染物。该3 项政策措施为京津冀交通能源环境与应对气候变化综 合管理的推荐措施。发展城市轨道交通不削减排放，协同效应最小，但是在提高城市交通运输 效率，以及缓解城市拥堵方面的作用优于减碳控污。 关键词：温室气体；空气污染物；情景分析；协同效应 中图分类号：X51 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-2355-(2017)04-0025-07 Doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2355.2017.04.005 Abstract: This paper focuses on analyzing the co-benefit of GHGs and air pollutants mitigation for transportation sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In order to quantify co-benefit, a parameter called synergistic rate and the technique of scenario analysis are used to assess different measures and policies. We have selected six key measures of road and rail transportation sector in this region. Quantification results reveal that two measures, development of inter- city high-speed/suburban railways and enhancement of highway network, have the highest synergistic rates, which are 11.5 and 8.8 per kilometers CO -eq. The measures of implementation strict emission standards on motor vehicles could 2 reduce 32.1 million tons of CO -eq and 176 thousand tons of air pollutants, which rank the first among all measures. 2 These three measures are supposed to be the best practice in dealing with energy, environment and climate change issues of transportation sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The paper also proves that development of urban railways is more helpful to ease traffic congestion than mitigate GHGs and air pollutions.