Theartofsmartguessing中文翻译.doc

The Art of Smart Guessing Several years ago interviewing candidates for a job I grew tired of asking What experience do you have So I decided on a one-question quiz to find out how resourceful a thinker the new hire might be. Here it is: 几年前我厌倦问面试应聘者“你有什么经验”所以我决定用一个问题的测验来了解新员工有多么的足智多谋。那就是 You are on a yacht sailing the Pacific Ocean. Your navigator announces you are over the deepest point the Mariana Trench. Just then a clumsy guest accidentally drops a 12-pound cannonball over the side. How long will it take for the cannonball to reach the bottom of the ocean 你在一艘航行于太平洋的游艇上。你的导航仪显示你是在最深的地方——马里亚纳海沟之上。就在那时一个笨拙的客人不小心将一枚12磅重的炮弹扔了下去。炮弹落到海底需要多长时间 Before reading on please try to solve this yourself--paying special attention to how you might solve it. 在继续阅读之前请设法自己解决这个问题——特别注意你如何解决它。 Did you make a completely wild guess because there wasnt enough information Did you get too bogged down in the details trying to come up with the exactly right answer Or did you zero in on the two most important problems--how deep is the Mariana Trench and how fast might a cannonball fall through the water-- then hazard a guesstimate 你是否因为“没有足够的信息”而做了一个完全的猜测你是否过于陷入细节试图找出“正确”答案还是你瞄准的两个最重要的问题——马里亚纳海沟有多深和炮弹在水中以多块的速度落下——然后大胆猜测 Most of my candidates simply made a wild guess thinking that if they couldnt be 100-percent right there was no use trying to be 95-percent right. Rarely was someone willing to risk an approximation. 我的大多数应聘者只是胡乱猜测想他们认为自己不可能100正确即使95正确也是没有用的。 很少有人愿意大胆猜测。 What does this have to do with business or creativity A great deal. In the real world we frequently need to make decisions when the full information does not exist. From what foods we eat to how to raise our kids creative people must think for themselves. There may not be the time or the money to make sure of all your decisions. Your best guess will often be the best you can do. 这与商业或创造力有什么关系呢事实上有很多关系。在现实世界中我们经常需要在没有完整信息的情况下做出决定。从我们吃什么食物到如何培养自己的孩子有创造力的人必须独立思考。你可能没有时间或金钱来确保你所有的决定。最好的猜测常常会成为你最应该做的事情。 Suppose for example youve be