财务报表分析Chapter0146.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Valuation Technologies:Methods that Involve Forecasting Dividend Discounting (Chapter 4) Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (Chapter 4) Pricing Book Values: Residual Earnings Analysis (Chapter 5) Pricing Earnings: Earnings Growth Analysis (Chapter 6) Tenets of Sound Fundamental Analysis One does not buy a stock, one buys a business When buying a business, know the business Value depends on the business model, the strategy Good firms can be bad buys Price is what you pay, value is what you get Part of the risk in investing is the risk of paying too much for a stock Ignore information at your peril Don’t mix what you know with speculation Anchor a valuation on what you know rather than speculation Beware of paying too much for growth When calculating value to challenge price, beware of using price in the calculation Stick to your beliefs and be patient; prices gravitate to fundamentals, but that can take some time Classifying and Ordering Information Don’t Mix What You Know With Speculation Order information in terms of how concrete it is: Separate concrete information from speculative information Anchor a valuation on what you know rather than speculation Financial statements provide an anchor Anchoring Valuation in the Financial Statements Value = Anchor + Extra Value For example, Value = Book value + Extra value Value = Earnings + Extra Value The valuation task: How to calculate the Extra Value The Continuing Case: Kimberly-Clark A continuing case threads its way through the book. At the end of each chapter (up to Chapter 15), you will find an installment of the case that applies the material in the chapter to Kimberly-Clark. By the end of Chapter 15, you will have a comprehensive analysis and valuation for this firm as an example to apply to other firms. Work the case as you progress through the book, then go to the book’s web site for the solution and further discussion Outline of the Book Parts I The Foundations Valuation