华北地区干旱强度的表征形式和其气候变异.pdfVIP

13 卷 2 期 自　然 　灾 　害 　学 　报 Vol . 13 ,No . 2 2004 年 4 月 J OU RNAL OF NA TU RAL D ISA STER S Ap r . , 2004 　 文章编号 (2004) 02 0032 07 华北地区干旱强度的表征形式及其气候变异 魏凤英 ( 中国气象科学研究院 ,北京 100081) 摘要 :在分析 195 1 - 200 1 年华北地区降水量 、气温及蒸发量变化特征的基础上 ,确定利用月降水量与 蒸发量之差的 Z 指数表征干旱强度 。该指数在时间及空间分布上的实际概率与理论概率均很接近 , 可以较好地表征华北地区干旱强度状况 。分析表明 ,华北地区干旱强度不但具有显著的年代际变化 特征 ,且年际振荡的信号也很强 。华北地区四季的干旱强度变化在干旱期的开始时间、干旱持续时间 和干旱强度等方面存在一定的差异 。 关键词 :华北地区;干旱强度 ;年际振荡 ;年代际变化 中图分类号 :P462 　　　文献标识码 :A Characterization of drought strength in North China and its cl imatic variation W EI Fengying (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , Beijing 100081 ,China) Abstract :The characteristics of p recipit ation , air temperat ure and evaporation variation in Nort h China during 195 1200 1 were analyzed and t he characterization of drought st rengt h were p ropo sed based on Z index of devia tion between p recipit ation and evaporation . The varying degree of drought can be exp ressed by t he index , as t he act ual p robabilit y is clo se to t he t heoretical one in sp atial and temporal dist ribution . The interdecade variations of t he drought st rengt h were very significant and t he signal of interannual o scillation were also st ronger . There were difference between beginning , lasting and st rengt h for four seasons during dry period in Nort h China . Key words :Nort h China ; drought st rengt h ; interannual o scillation ; interdecade variation