人口结构变迁对房价影响分析彭建文蔡怡纯.PDFVIP

人口結構變遷對房價影響分析 彭建文  蔡怡純 扶養比是人口結構改變的重要指標，可反映生產人口的經濟壓力，以往許多 文獻探討扶養比對儲蓄與財富累積的影響，但對於人口結構改變對房地產市場的 影響鮮少討論。在台灣生育率持續下降的同時，人口也逐漸的老化，人口結構失 衡已經衍生為台灣的重要國安問題。在此同時住宅需求卻無止盡的增加，也推升 了國內的房價，究竟這樣的房價上升是否與人口結構變化有關? 長期而言，房價 是否反映少子化與人口老化的影響? 本文的實證結果顯示房價分別與生育率和 扶老率有長期的整合關係，房價會隨著生育率和扶老率變化，生育率增加會帶動 房價的上升，扶老率增加則會降低房價，故當前日益嚴重的少子化與人口老化趨 勢，可能會對未來房價產生負面衝擊。 關鍵詞: 生育率、扶老率、追蹤資料、共整合分析 JEL 分類代號: R21, R31  作者分別任職於國立臺北大學不動產與城鄉環境系與國立高雄大學金融管理學系。聯絡作者為 彭建文(cwpeng@mail.ntpu.edu.tw) 。感謝兩位匿名審查委員所提供之寶貴意見，使本文在結構與 內涵上更加嚴謹與完善，惟文中如有任何疏漏之處，由作者自行負責。本文為行政院國科會專題 研究計畫(102-2410-H-305 -047 -MY2 )之部分研究成果，特此感謝。 1 The effects of demographic structure change on housing prices Chien-Wen Peng Department of Real Estate Built Environment, National Taipei University I-Chun Tsai Department of Finance, National University of Kaohsiung Dependency rate is an indicator of demographic structure which usually be used to measure the pressure on productive population. A high dependency ratio can cause serious problems for a country if a large proportion of a governments expenditure is on health, social security and education, which are most used by the youngest and the oldest in a population. Many previous studies found that dependency rate was the main determinant of household saving or wealth accumulation. This study tries further to clarify whether demographic changes, especially dependency rate, affecting housing prices. The empirical results reveal that house price is cointegrated with fertility rate and old dependency rate, respectively. In the long run, an increase of fertility rate increases hous