data assimilation using an ensemble kalman filter technique（数据同化使用一个卡尔曼滤波器技术）.pdfVIP

796 M O N T H L Y W E A T H E R R E V I E W VOLUME 126 Data Assimilation Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter Technique P. L. HOUTEKAMER AND HERSCHEL L. MITCHELL Direction de la Recherche en Me´te´orologie, Atmospheric Environment Service, Dorval, Quebec, Canada (Manuscript received 18 December 1996, in final form 10 June 1997) ABSTRACT The possibility of performing data assimilation using the flow-dependent statistics calculated from an ensemble of short-range forecasts (a technique referred to as ensemble Kalman filtering) is examined in an idealized environment. Using a three-level, quasigeostrophic, T21 model and simulated observations, experiments are performed in a perfect-model context. By using forward interpolation operators from the model state to the observations, the ensemble Kalman filter is able to utilize nonconventional observations. In order to maintain a representative spread between the ensemble members and avoid a problem of inbreeding, a pair of ensemble Kalman filters is configured so that the assimilation of data using one ensemble of short- range forecasts as background fields employs the weights calculated from the other ensemble of short-range forecasts. This configuration is found to work well: the spread between the ensemble members resembles the difference between the ensemble mean and the true state, except in the case of the smallest ensembles. A series of 30-day data assimilation cycl