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estimating wealth effects without expenditure data— or tears（估计财富效应没有支出数据或眼泪）.pdf

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estimating wealth effects without expenditure data— or tears（估计财富效应没有支出数据或眼泪）

Estimating Wealth Effects without Expenditure Data -- or Tears: An Application to Educational Enrollments in States of India Deon Filmer Lant Pritchett Abstract: We use the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data collected in Indian states in 1992 and 1993 to estimate the relationship between household wealth and the probability a child (aged 6 to 14) is enrolled in school. A methodological difficulty to overcome is that the NFHS, modeled closely on the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), measures neither household income nor consumption expenditures. As a proxy for long-run household wealth we construct a linear index from a set of asset indicators using principal components analysis to derive the weights. This “asset index” is robust, produces internally coherent results, and provides a close correspondence with State Domestic Product (SDP) and poverty rates data. We validate the asset index using data from Indonesia, Pakistan and Nepal which contain data on both consumption expenditures and asset ownership. The asset index has reasonable coherence with current consumption expenditures and most importantly, works as well, or better, than traditional expenditure based measures in predicting enrollment status. When the asset index is applied to the Indian data the results show large, and variable, wealth gaps in the enrollment of children across states of India. While on average across India a rich (top 20 percent of the asset index) child is 31 percentage points more likely to be enrolled than a poor child (bottom 40 percent), this wealth gap varies from only 4.6 in Kerala, to 38.2 in Uttar Pradesh and 42.6 percentage points in Bihar. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Direct