中国因素对近年来日本产业空洞化的影响分析.pdf

1 2 伞 锋 曾 浪 （1．国家信息中心经济预测部，北京 100045； 2．外交学院， 北京 100037） 摘要：分析日本对外直接 投资的增长与日本进出口和就业的关系得知，“中国因素”不仅不是日本产业空洞化的祸首，反而是新一轮景气回升的重 要动力。中国因素加快了日本逆工业化进程，尽管使日本制造业失业人数增加，但导致日本产业空洞化的真正原因是服 务业过多的规制和劳动力市场缺乏弹性，使逆工业化过程中制造业释放出的失业人员不能向服务业进行有效转移。 关键词：产业空洞化；逆工业化；中国因素；日本经济 中图分类号：F130.531.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000—355X（2005）04—0022—05 Analysis of the Effect of China Factor on Japan’s Industry Hollowing-out SAN Feng, ZENG Lang （1.Division of Economic Forecast, National Information Center of China, Beijing, 100045, China; 2. China Forelgn Affairs Universitg Beijing ,100037,China ） Abstract ：The discussion of the industry hollowing-out issue has gone into another high tide in Japan in recent years, during which the issue has been connected with the so-called “China factor.” An analysis of the relationship between the increase of direct foreign investment and foreign trade and employment of Japan can show what is called the “China factor” has never been the curse of Japan’s industry hollowing-out and, moreover, the factor has been in fact the major motive force for the country’s new round of prosperity revitalization. Although the China factor has contributed to the increase of unemployment in Japan’s manufacturing industries, what has really led to the country’s deindustrialization are the country’ own overregulation in service industries and lack of flexibility in manpower markets, which have made impossible the effective transfer of the layoffs from manufacturing industries to service industries during the process of the country’s deindustrialization. Key Words ：industry hollowing-out ；deindustrializat