生产率增长之谜（The mystery of productivity growth）.docVIP

生产率增长之谜（The mystery of productivity growth） The mystery of productivity growth To see the wonders of productivity growth, there is no better place than the high yield fields of American corn. 100 years ago, when a large group of peasants toiled and produced only 30 bushels / acre, only a few people could now get 160 bushels of crops on the same acre. The rise of modern civilization is based on the increasing trend of per capita output. For the past 120 years, humans seem to have followed certain rules, with per capita output rising by about 2% a year. But in the last ten years, things seem to have changed. Trusted economists like Robert Gordon (Robert Gordon) at the Northwestern University (Northwestern University) worry that 2% is not a law, but a phase that is approaching the finish line. According to Gordon analysis, the next 120 years, 2% growth rate may easily become 1%, or even lower. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already lowered its forecast for long-term interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen (Janet The most likely reason for this is the forecast for longer-term growth, Yellen said at a recent news conference...... There have been some slight declines. However there are also some technological optimists, such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Eric? Brin Iel Song (Erik Brynjolfsson) and Andrew McAfee (Andrew McAfee)?, they have great confidence in the new discovery, that they expect growth to accelerate, rather than fall. There are more reserved economists whose answers are less exciting and less significant than historical averages. They believe that per capita output growth will be slightly below 2%. The productivity problem may bring to American economy the most significant consequences, involving all aspects from when interest rates should rise to when to stop raising interest rates; from the sustainability of US debt, what is the most sensible investment level of American enterprises. The answer depends on companies like Clima