6月份物价数据简要分析.pdf

广发研究(2013)第48 期 2013-7-9 执笔：李海涛 物价底部波动，基本面需求依然低迷 翻译：高扬 ——6 月份物价数据简要分析  事件：统计局9 日发布了6 月份物价数据： 6 月CPI 同比增速2.7%，上月为2.1%；PPI 同比增速-2.7%，上月为-2.9%。 利率与衍生交易团队： 简评： 7 月9 日，统计局发布了2013 年6 月物价数据，总体来看，CPI 和PPI 的同比增 欧阳健 021 速与预期相比出现了背离，CPI 略超预期环比价格企稳，没有继续下行，而 PPI ouyangjian@ 同比由于环比价格继续下行带动其仍保持低位。CPI 环比不变主要是蔬菜价格的继 颜 岩 021 续下降对冲了肉禽类价格上涨的影响。PPI 持续下跌，主要源于上游生产资料购进 yanyan@ 价格的持续下跌，以及制造业需求端动力不足的影响。由于蔬菜价格进入夏季可能 吴思捷 021 会反弹，同时考虑到肉禽类价格持续反弹的影响，预计 7 月份CPI 同比会企稳在 wusijie@ 2.7%左右。7 月份PPI 同比增速会略有改善在-2.5%左右。 李海涛 021 National Bureau of Statistics has announced June CPI PPI figures today. General lihaitao@ speaking, we see the divergence between CPI and PPI month on month figure. We see the sequential CPI figure has exceeded the market expectation, which has stabilized without further declining. In comparison, PPI sequential figure continue to keep at a low level which driving the month on month figure lower than expected. The main reason of stabilized CPI sequential figure is due to the hedging effect between vegetables and poultry. The further declining of PPI figure is due to the declining of purchasing production price in the up stream and the insufficient manufacturer demand. Considering a seasonal increase of vege price in the summer, and further rebound of poultry price, we expect CPI figure will stay at 2.7% m.o.m. in July, and slightly improved PPI figur