PROJECT COST OVERRUNS AND RISK （项目成本超支和风险）.pdf

PROJECT COST OVERRUNS AND RISK MANAGEMENT Simon Jackson School of Construction Management and Engineering, The University of Reading, Whiteknights, PO Box 219, Reading, RG6 6AW, UK The construction industry has a reputation for delivering projects over budget. This research identifies actual project examples illustrating the problem of cost overruns. Results of a questionnaire survey present perceptions of the main reasons why building construction projects sometimes exceed the initial budget estimate. The paper reviews how the construction industry is responding to the challenge of accurate budgeting. In the domain of facility capital cost budgets and risk management, two key conclusions are made. Firstly, that complete design information leads to more accurate budget estimates. Secondly, that client driven design change is the greatest risk. Clients are the key drivers of change and they must therefore take a look at themselves before blaming the industry for being inefficient. Keywords: design changes, design information, cost overruns, risk management. INTRODUCTION All too often construction projects make the national headlines for being financial disasters – rather than significant engineering achievements that contribute to the improvement of our built environment. In the mid-1990s a government investigation revealed that more than one quarter of construction schemes finished over their capital cost limit (HM Treasury, 1995). Further to this, a survey of construction industry clients found that nearly one third complained that their projects generally overran budget (Barrick, 1995). This problem continued through the latter part of the decade with the Construction Clients Forum (1997) reporting that sixty per cent of clients said that cost targets were not being met. At the start of this new d