基于最大熵原理的旋转备用方案风险评估李如琦.pdf

36 3 Vol. 36 No. 3 2012 3 Power System Technology Mar. 2012 100003-0241-05 F 123.9 A 790·625 530004 Risk Assessment of Spinning Reserve Scheme Based on Maximum Entropy Principle LI Ruqi, SU Haoyi (School of Electrical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China) ABSTRACT: In the environment of electricity market, market participants become independent economic entities, so existing [1][2] uncertainty factors in various aspects may lead to the difference between actual value and desired value of economic profit of spinning reserve scheme. The occurrence probability of [3] operation conditions of the units that can provide spinning reverse and the revenue of spinning reverse schemes under [4] varous operational conditions are analyzed, and a maximum entropy priciple base risk assessemnt model for spinning reverse schemes is built, and the built model is solved by [5] improved second-order simulated annealing and algorithm [6] particle swarm optimization (SSA-PSO). Using the proposed model, comprehensive evaluation on reliability and economy [7] of unit operation can be implemented. Calculation example results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. [8] KEY WORDS: electricity market; spinning reserve; maximum entropy; simulated annealing