专题三内蒙古区内外能源需求进展与研究计划-国际清洁能源论坛.PPTVIP

2014/11/22 中国“十三五”能源发展展望China Energy Development Outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period中国澳门 Macao, China 26 November, 2014 韩文科 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所 Han WenkeDirector General, Energy Research Institute, NDRC China 第三届国际清洁能源论坛The 3rd International Forum for Clean Energy Outline 一、当前的中国能源经济形势 1. The current situation of China’s energy economy 二、“十三五”能源政策框架和发展展望 2. Energy policy framework and development outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period Outline 一、当前的中国能源经济形势 1. The current situation of China’s energy economy 二、“十三五”能源政策框架和发展展望 2. Energy policy framework and development outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period 经济发展处于“三期叠加” 进入新常态 Economic development is “three period superimposed” and enters the “new normal” 伴随经济发展进入新常态，中国的能源供需形势也出现了重大的变化。 2014年前三季度，能源消费增量、增速出现不同程度的下降，国内能源产量与去年基本相当，部分品种甚至出现负增长，能源供需总体宽裕，煤炭、电力、炼油能力出现不同程度的富余，能源价格稳中走降，预计2014年全年能源供应总体宽松，能源产销保持低增长的态势。 There have been significant changes in China’s energy supply and demand pattern along with the “new normal” of China’s economic growth pace. The incremental growth and growth rate of energy consumption declined in the first 3 quarters of 2014. Domestic energy production is at the similar level as last year, with several products seeing negative growth. Energy market is overall loose, with different levels of excess supply capacity of coal, power and refinery. Energy prices are stable with downward trend. It is expected that the annual energy supply for 2014 will be loose and energy sales will maintain low growth. 一次能源消费总量年增量由2003-2011年的平均2.1亿tce，降至2012-2013年的平均1.3亿tce。 Annual incremental growth in primary energy consumption reduced to 130Mtce in 2012-13, from an annual average of 210Mtce during 2003-11. 一次能源消费增量下降 Increment declines in primary energy consumption 能源消费增速由2003-2011年平均8.1%降至2012-2013年不到4% Annual growth rate of energy consumption reduced to less than 4% in 2012-13 from an annual average of 8.1% during 2003-11. 一次能源消费增速下降 Growth rate declines in