基于协整理论的税收预测误差修正模型初探 - 华南师范大学学报.PDF

华南师范大学学报 (自然科学版 ) 2006年 2月 JOURNAL OF SOUTH CH INA NORMAL UN IVERSITY 2006年第 1期 Feb. 2006 ( NATURAL SCIENCE ED IT ION) No. 1, 2006 : 1000 5463( 2006) 01 0009 06 张绍秋1, 2 ( 1. , 510641; 2. , 510030) : GDP, , . , , . : ; ; ; : F810. 423; F224. 0 : A RESEARCH ON TAX PREDICTION ERROR CORRECTION MODEL BASED ON COINTEGRATION THEORY ZHANG Shao q iu ( 1. College ofAutomation Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China; 2. Guangzhou Localtax Bureau, Guangzhou 510030, China) Abstract: First, the nonstationary of the revenue and theGDP are testified by using theUnit Root Tes.t Then a long term and stationary relation is proved to exist between revenue and GDP. F inally, a kind of error correction model on taxation forecasting has been established based on the theory of cointegration. This forecasting model is proved to be effective and ac curate, andm eets the dem ands in practice. Key words: taxation forecasting; integration; cointegration; error correctionmodel , , . . , , . , . , X t , X t : ( 1) , t, E(X t ) = , ; ( 2) Var(X t ) : 2004 11 24 : ( 1969 ) Em ail: zsq1@ 163 net 10 华 南 师 范 大 学 学 报 ( 自然 科 学 版) 2006年 , t. : , . , , , , t. , , , , , , , , , . ? , , . .