基于环流分型的广西冰雹潜势预报研究.pdf

34 ,6 气 象 Vol.34 No.6 2 0 0 8 6 METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY June, 2008 1,2 2 2 2 农孟松 祁丽燕 黄明策 曾小团 ( 1. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京210044; 2. 广西气象台) : 利用常规观测资料,在对广西4 个区域冰雹气候 征分析的基础上, 对造成 冰雹的环流形势分为华北低槽型高原东部低槽型和南支槽型检索出数值预报产 品有物理意义的预报因子,采取判别分析法和指标叠套法制作广西冰雹的潜势预报 结果表明,指标叠套法优于判别分析法基于数值模式输出场的参数估计, 对于不同 参数设置不同阈值范围来制作广西冰雹落区的概率预报试验, 过程预报有 一定效 果,但落区预报方法还有待于进一步改进 : 冰雹 环流分型 潜势预报 参数估计 阈值 概率预报 Research on Hail Potential Forecast Happened in Guangxi ased on Circulation Classification 1,2 2 2 2 Nong Mengsong Qi Liyan Huang Mingce Zeng Xiaotuan ( 1. School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science T echnology, Nanjing 210044; 2. Guangxi Meteorological Observatory) Abstract: y using routine observation data, the climate characteristics of the hail in four areas of Guangxi are analyzed. T he circulation patterns that causes hail are classified to be three kinds: Huabei trough, east plateau trough, south branch trough. y searching the forecast factors with physics meaning from numerical forecast products, the potential forecast of hail is produced by us- ing the discriminate analytical method and index accumulating method. The results show that the index accumulating method isbetter than the discriminate analytical method. ased on the param- eter estimation of numerical model output fields, different thresholds for different parameters are set up to produce the probability forecast of the falling area for the hail happened in Guangxi. Process forecast has