中国城环境空气质量影响因素分析及预测山西财经大学程晓华王静.pdfVIP

中国城市环境空气质量影响因素分析及预测 山西财经大学 程晓华、王静、李慧敏 摘 要: 目前，城市环境空气质量已严重影响到人们的身心健康，对城市环境空气质 量影响因素分析及预测研究刻不容缓。本文选取了我国克拉玛依、大同、潍坊、武汉、 汕头、韶关、牡丹江及赤峰8 个城市2008-2012 年的样本数据（数据来源于中国气象科 学数据共享网、历年《中国城市统计年鉴》和中华人民共和国环境保护部网站），并采 用面板数据模型方法分别从气候、社会因素两个角度对城市空气污染指数进行影响因素 分析；采用温特斯指数平滑法、时间序列分解法、自回归移动平均法（ARMA ）对空气 污染指数进行预测研究。实证结果显示：①气候和人类经济社会活动都会对空气污染指 数产生显著影响。气候方面，降水量、湿度、温度、水汽压均与空气污染指数呈显著负 相关。人类经济社会活动方面，工业总产值、粉尘排放量与空气污染指数呈显著正相关， 绿化面积与空气污染指数呈显著负相关。②时间序列分解法和自回归移动平均综合使用 可有效用于空气污染指数预测，而且月度数据用于中长期预测的效果要明显好于其他数 据类型。本文最后在实证研究的基础上提出针对性的政策建议。 关键词:空气污染指数；面板数据；预测 Chinas Urban Environmental Air Quality Influence Factors Analysis And Prediction Abstract: At present, the urban environment air quality has severely affected peoples physical and mental health, brook no delay to analysis and forecast of impact factors of city ambient air quality .This paper selects the karamay, datong, weifang, wuhan, shantou, shaoguan, mudanjiang and chifeng eight cities in 2008-2012 sample data (data from China meteorological science data sharing network, the China city statistical yearbook and the Peoples Republic of China Environmental Protection Department Web site).From both climate and social aspects, we analysis influence factors of urban air pollution index by using the panel data model methods, Winters exponential smoothing method, time series decomposition method, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) prediction research. The empirical results show that: (1)the climate and human economic and social activity can have a significant impact on air pollution index. The climate factors: rainfall, humidity, temperature, water vapor pressure has significant negative correlation with the air pollution index. Human economic and social activities: the gross industrial output value, dust discharge and air pollution index showed significant positive correlation, and green area was negatively correlated wi