国民收入：来自何处 源自何方(央财中宏)课件.ppt

* * Notes: 1. The huge deficit in the early 1940s was due to WW2: wars are expensive. 2. During the ‘50s, we usually had surpluses. 3. During the ‘60s, the budget was, on average, close to balanced. 4. During the ‘70s, the budget was more volatile, and was always in deficit. 5. We started the 1980s with the budget close to balanced (as % of GDP), but the early 1980s began an era of large and persistent budget deficits, which continued into the early 1990s. This was due to the Reagan tax cuts and defense spending increases, as well as an increase in outlays on entitlements. 6. Beginning in the early 1990s, the budget begins a positive trend, and a surplus emerges in the late 1990s. There are several possible explanations for the improvement. First, President Bush (the first one) broke his campaign promise not to raise taxes. Second, the Clinton administration barely squeaked a deficit reduction deal through Congress (with Al Gore casting the tie-breaking vote in the Senate). And third, and probably most important, there was a swelling of tax revenues due to the surge in economic growth and the stock market boom. (A stock market boom leads to large capital gains, which leads to large revenues from the capital gains tax.) 7. In 2001, the economy slowed and probably was in recession, causing tax revenues to fall. Also, government spending increased due to the war on terrorism and to automatic stabilizers kicking in. Source of data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. * A later chapter will give more details, but for now, tell students that the government finances its deficits by borrowing from the public. (This borrowing takes the form of selling Treasury bonds). Persistent deficits over time imply persistent borrowing, which causes the debt to increase. After WW2, occasional budget surpluses allowed the government to retire some of its WW2 debt; also, normal economic growth increased the denominator of the debt-to-