M1与M2作为货币政策中介目标的适用性研究.pdfVIP

　第 26 卷第 9 期 统计研究 Vol . 26 , No9 2009 年 9 月 Statistical Research Sep. 2009 　 M1 和 M2 作为货币政策中介 目标的 适用性研究 耿中元 　惠晓峰 　　内容提要 :M1 、M2 均符合可测性要求 。稳定性检验和格兰杰因果检验结果表 明 ,M1 比 M2 更具可控性 。 Johansen 协整检验 、格兰杰因果检验 、脉冲响应分析结果和基于 M1 、M2 相对增长速度的分析结果表明 ,M1 与货币政 策最终 目标的相关性好于 M2 。因此 ,我国仍应将 M1 作为货币政策中介 目标 ,将 M2 作为观测 目标 ,并要加强对 M1 的相对增长速度的调控 。 关键词 :M1 ;M2 ; 中介 目标 ;相对增长速度 ( ) 中图分类号 :F222 　　　文献标识码 :A 　　　文章编号 :1002 - 4565 2009 09 - 0064 - 06 Study of the Applicability of M1 and M2 as a Monetary Policy Intermediate Target Geng Zhongyuan Hui Xiaofeng Abstract :M1 , M2 are consistent with the requirements of testability. M1 is more controllable than M2 , which can be seen from the results of stability test and granger causality test . Relevance of M1 with final goals of monetary policy is better than that of M2 , which can be seen from the results of Johansen cointegration test , granger causality test , impulse response analysis and the analysis of relative growth rate of M1 ,M2 . Therefore , China should focus on M1 as an intermediate target of monetary policy and M2 as an observed target , and strengthen to regulate M1 relative growth rate . Key words :M1 ; M2 ; Intermediate Target ; Relative Growth Rate ( ) (