卫星城论文：卫星城至主城区停车换乘需求预测研究.docVIP

卫星城论文：卫星城至主城区的停车换乘需求预测研究 【中文摘要】随着城市化进程的加快,城市的经济、人口都在不断膨胀,使得城市的范围逐渐地向外围蔓延,与周边的卫星城镇之间的关系也因此更加紧密。主城区交通本身就处于拥堵、环境污染、土地资源匮乏等问题不断加剧的紧张状态,还要承受吞吐周边卫星城镇客流的压力,于是问题也变得越来越严峻。停车换乘(Park and Ride,简称PR)作为城市交通需求管理(TDM)的一种手段,在国外的研究和实施上已有很多成功的例子,如今在中国很多大城市像上海、北京、杭州等等都在逐渐尝试性设置PR设施,并取得一定效果。因此,为了让PR系统更好的发挥作用,提高PR系统规划的科学性,对卫星城至主城区PR需求预测的研究是十分必要的。论文以卫星城至主城区PR需求为研究对象,从选择行为的角度出发,对PR需求预测方法进行研究。首先,对国内外关于PR的研究现状进行了回顾,对PR选择行为特征分析、需求影响因素分析以及需求预测模型的建立等方面的内容进行了总结和归纳。然后,对卫星城至主城区PR相关理论进行了系统的论述,包括卫星城和PR基础理论、卫星城至主城区出行特征分析以及对卫星城至主城区PR系统进行了界定。在掌握了卫星城出行特点后,对卫星城常住居民展开停车换乘需求行为调查。对调查方法做了对比,选取SP调查方法进行调查方案的设计,确定调查结果分析内容,即分别对个人属性、出行情况和情境假设条件与PR选择行为内在联系进行分析的工作。在此基础上,结合PR需求行为影响因素分析,提出先利用非集计模型原理,建立单个卫星城至主城区PR需求预测模型,再汇总规划区域各个卫星城预测结果的预测方法。同时提出针对不同时间跨度的规划采用的计算方法要有所区别。论文最后以成都的卫星城郫县作为例子进行上述理论方法的验证,验证的结果证明以上理论与方法是科学、合理的。 【英文摘要】With the acceleration of urbanization, the city’s economy and population are in a constant state of expansion, which not only makes the scope of the city continue to spread to the periphery, but also to makes the surrounding Satellite Cities and cities closer together.The main city is in the escalating tensions about traffic congestion, environmental pollution, scarcity of land resources issues, While also bearing the pressure of the passengers from Satellite Cities, so it is becoming more and more severe of the problem.Park and Ride (referred to as the P R) is an urban transportation demand management (TDM) means.There have been many successful examples in research and application abroad.Nowdays many major cities in China such as Shanghai, Beijing, have been increasingly trying to set P R facilities that have achieved a certain effect.Therefore, it is very necessary of the P R demand forecasting study from Satellite Cities to the main city,in order to make P R system functions better and planning more scientific.The paper, based on the object of study on P R demand from Satellite Cities to the main city, does research on the P R demand forecasting from the perspective of choice behavior.Fir