气候变暖对中国栓皮栎地理分布格局影响预测_李垚.pdf

网络出版时间：2014-09-25 08:19 网络出版地址：/kcms/doi/10.13287/j.1001-9332005.html 气候变暖对中国栓皮栎地理分布格局影响的预测* ** 李 垚 张兴旺 方炎明 （南京林业大学森林资源与环境学院，南京210037 ） 摘要 利用DIVA-GIS 软件对中国栓皮栎的地理分布及气候特征进行研究,并用该软件中的Bioclim 和Domain 两个模型评估未来潜 在分布区对气候变暖的响应.结果表明: 中国栓皮栎分布区可分为横断山脉区、云贵高原区、华北山地区、华东山丘区、辽鲁半岛区、 台湾海岛区和秦岭巴山区7 个亚区,跨越7 个温度带、2 个干湿区、17 个气候区,包括8 种气候类型.秦岭-大巴山-伏牛山为栓皮栎的现 代多度中心.适合栓皮栎生长的年平均温度为7.5~19.8 ℃,年降雨量为471~1511 mm.Domain 和Bioclim 模型的受试者工作特征曲线下 的面积(AUC 值)分别为0.910、0.779,前者预测的高度适生区为秦岭、大巴山、伏牛山、桐柏山和大别山、云贵高原东部和西部、苏 皖南部丘陵和华北部分山地.气候变暖趋势下栓皮栎潜在分布区可能向北回缩,面积减小. 关键词 栓皮栎 DIVA-GIS 地理分布 潜在分布区 中图分类号 Q948.13 文献标识码 A Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China. LI Yao, ZHANG Xing-wang, FANG Yan-ming (College of Forest Resource and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China) Abstract: The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS, which was also used to estimate the response of its future potential distribution regions to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern richness center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 ℃ and annual precipitation 471-1511mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curv