长时间尺度风电出力时间序列建模新方法研究 a new method to simulate wind power time series of large time scale.pdfVIP

第41 卷 第1 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.41 No.1 2013 年1 月1 日 Power System Protection and Control Jan. 1, 2013 长时间尺度风电出力时间序列建模新方法研究 刘 纯，吕振华，黄越辉，马 烁，王伟胜 （中国电力科学研究院，北京 100192） 摘要：通过分析风电出力时间序列内部组成结构，提出了一种构造未来风电出力场景的新方法。该方法首先对风电出力时间 序列进行滤波和理想化处理，然后将风电出力时间序列划分为风过程和片段并统计风过程转移概率和片段概率分布，最后序 贯抽样风过程和片段得到模拟风电时间序列。通过比对历史风电出力和模拟风电出力的特性，验证了新方法的可靠性。该方 法为研究风电规划、风电容量可信度、风电接入后系统可靠性和风电接纳能力评估打下了基础。 关键词：风电时间序列构造；片段；风过程；概率统计 A new method to simulate wind power time series of large time scale LIU Chun, Lü Zhen-hua, HUANG Yue-hui, MA Shuo, WANG Wei-sheng (China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China) Abstract ：This paper proposes a new method to simulate the possible scenarios of wind power after analyzing the internal composition of wind power time series. This method at first filters and idealizes wind power time series, then divides wind power time series into wind process and fragment and counts the transition probability of wind processes and probability distribution of fragments, at last samples sequentially wind processes and fragments to acquire simulated wind power time series. Wind power time series generated by new method match historical data on features concerned. This new method lays foundation for wind power planning, wind power capacity credit, assessment of reliability of power system integrating wind power and the ability of integrating wind power. This work is supported by National High-tech R D Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2011AA05A101). Key words: wind power times series simulation; fragment; wind process; probability and