河北省粮食产量变动及因素分解研究.pdfVIP

第 38 卷第 5 期 2016 年 9 月 Vol.38 No.5 Journal of Tangshan Normal University Sep. 2016 区域资源与经济研究 河北省粮食产量变动及因素分解研究 郝瑞彬，尹力军，张新锋 （唐山师范学院资源管理系，河北 唐山 063000 ） 摘 要：为了揭示河北省 1978-2013 年粮食产量变动的时序特征及其贡献因素，基于改进的拉氏因素分解 方法，建立粮食产量变动的因素分解模型，定量分析了各因素对粮食产量变动的影响方向和份额。结果表明： （1 ）研究期河北省粮食产量总体呈上升趋势，但在1998-2003 年间出现了明显的生产滑坡；（2 ）从1978-2013 年各分解因素的效应看，粮食结构、作物单产、复种指数的变化对粮食增产起促进作用，作用强度由大到小， 而耕地面积效应和粮作比例效应则起负面作用；（3 ）在研究期粮食产量变化的3 个不同阶段其主导因素不同。 最后，对粮食产量变化因素分解模型的意义、河北省粮食增产重点进行了初步讨论。 关键词：粮食产量；因素分解；RLI 法；河北省 F301.21 A 1009-9115(2016)05-0148-05 中图分类号： 文献标识码： 文章编号： DOI ：10.3969/j.issn.1009-9115.2016.05.045 Study on Change of Grain Yield and Factors Decomposition in Hebei Province HAO Rui-bin, YIN Li-jun, ZHANG Xin-feng (Department of Resource Management, Tangshan Normal University, Tangshan 063000, China) Abstract: In order to reveal the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of grain yield and its determinants in Hebei Province during 1978-2013, factor decomposition model for grain yield change was created based on RLI method, the influence of various factors on the changes of grain yield were analyzed quantitatively. Analysis results were as follows: (1) The grain yield of Hebei province showed a rising trend, but there was a significant production decline from 1998 to 2003; (2) From the view of effect of factor decomposition in 1978-2013, the effect of grain structure, the grain yield per hectare, multiple cropping index were positive and their effect strength descending, but the effect of arable land and grain farming index was negat