52017年国际磷肥及中微量肥料场分析.ppt

Strong Support from the Fertilizer Industry ? After imports reached a record level in 2014/15 due to strong demand and a decline in domestic production capacity, imports declined in the most recent fertilizer year. ? Given limited growth expected in domestic production, we believe imports will remain an important supply source in the years ahead. ? Large low-cost global suppliers in Russia, Morocco and the Middle East – which represent nearly 90% of total US imports – are expected to remain a key source of competitive supply to the US. * There are two key projects to come on line in 2017 – OCP’s third integrated phosphate complex and Ma’aden’s joint venture project. Combined these two projects are expected to account for approximately two-thirds of the total new P2O5 capacity in 2017. ? There are also projects in China expected to come online but we believe their capacity could be largely offset by other sites shutting down over time due to economic or environmental challenges. ? Major supply post 2018 includes the ramp-up at Ma’aden plus the continuation of OCP’s phosphate capacity build out. * * The latest ANDA statistics indicate that total phosphate shipments increased more than 9% to 4.8 million tonnes P2O5 last year, and shipments are forecast to increase by a similar amount again this year. Shipments of high analysis products including DAP, MAP, NPS, and TSP are projected to climb to 8.5 million tonnes this year, up 10% or 760,000 tonnes from last year. Imports of these products are forecast to increase 18% or more than 1.0 million tonnes to 6.6 million tonnes this year. * * U.S Calcium Nitrate Market size, by application, 2013-2024 (USD Million) * * * Comments: Very strong industry support. Funding from affiliates is offsetting ZNI project costs. 美国DAP/MAP进口保持稳定 PCS,2016 大多数的竞争者更具成本优势 Source: Mosaic 2017 摩洛哥和沙特的产能快速提升 PCS,2016 预计2017年印度产量下降 进口量上升 PCS,2016 2016年市场平稳 需求创下新高2017年市场估计较为乐观 Mosica,2017 巴西需求强劲 价格高企 俄罗斯迎来突破性的一年 充足的需求支撑2017年价格上行 长期预测 重