汇率还是股市（Exchange rate or the stock market）.docVIP

汇率还是股市（Exchange rate or the stock market） Criticism is politically incorrect and support is immoral. Government leaders like clouds, but a monthly income of 9000, is a master can not endure, and stay, or ha ha, or rely on faith. Background: two weeks ago on a business trip, Shanghai visited customers and clients asked about exchange rates. I think at that time: 1, the fundamentals are obviously overvalued, devaluation pressure; 2, short-term devaluation is unlikely, because the two hornets Nest: 1 stock valuations high leverage; 2 exchange rate obviously overvalued, there are relatively large leverage. If devalued, it is easy to fall into the two line, while appeasing stocks and foreign exchange. The two problems interact with each other and are difficult to control and predict. The results of the face. My opinion: the exchange rate boom is starting to go beyond expectations in many ways and the situation is complicated. RMB obviously overvalued, the decline in foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar interest rate hike strong, this issue is not divided. Since 2011, domestic interest rates have been much higher than overseas interest rates, and credit access has been difficult. Domestic enterprises have been financing overseas and returning funds to China through trade and other means. But it also accumulates currency mismatches, dollar liabilities and Renminbi assets. When there are relatively large fluctuations in the exchange rate, there will be a large following market. If the foreign exchange market wants to manipulate the RMB, many people will have chips in their hands. The risk premium and the stock market crash, the economic situation is not good relationship. There are concerns about China overseas market, sovereign debt risk premium has exceeded the most serious crash in recent period, domestic interest rates rise. Facing the paradox: once in place, the advantage is to follow the trend of the disk is not, but it will bring difficult to control the risk. Such as t