城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案决策分析_于培林.pdfVIP

1 8 1 V ol. 1 8No. 1 2 0 0 8 1 Ch ina Safety Sc ience Journal Jan . 2 0 0 8 * 于培林 姚安林 教授 李又绿 刘晓艳 (西南石油大学建筑工程学院, 成都 610500) : 620. 3020 : X928. 03 : A : (2006BAK02B01) 通过对近年来的城市燃气管道事故抢险统 数据的分析与研究, 管道事故抢险方案的 选择存在着很大的主观性和片面性为了克服应急抢修方案的种种局限, 笔者应用模糊综合评判方 法建立了城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案评价选择模型; 考虑可靠性抢修时间事故损失抢险费 用社会影响及政治影响等 6类影响因素来评判抢修方案的优劣, 可以科学合理地选择最佳的管道 事故应急抢修方案, 达到经济合理快速可靠的目的; 实例验证, 评判模型对城市燃气管道事故抢险 具有重要的现实意义和参考价值 管道事故; 抢修方案; 决策分析; 模糊综合评判; 城市燃气 Dec i ion Analy i on the Em ergency Repairing Schem e for U rban Ga P ipeline A ccident YU Peilin YAO Anlin, Prof. LI Youl LIU Xiao an ( School of Architecture C ivil Eng ineering, Southw e t Petroleum Un iver ity, Chengdu 610500, Ch ina) Abstract: Through the analy i on the tati tical data of em ergency repair of urban ga pipeline accident in recent year, it i found out that there ex i t m uch ubjectiv ity and one idedne in the cho ice of em er gency repairing chem e . T o overcom e thi lmi itation, an a e m entm odel for the cho ice of em ergency re pairing chem e i pre ented by u e of fuzzy com prehen ive evaluation m ethod. In th i m odel, ix factor includ ing reliab ility, repairing length, accident lo , repairing expen e, ocial influence and political in fluence, are u ed to evaluate the fea ib ility of the repairing chem e. An examp le illu trate that thi a e m entm odel i of great practical ignificance and reference value for the em ergency repair of urban ga pipeline acc ident . K e words: p ipeline acc ident; em ergency repairing chem e; dec i ion analy i; fuzzy com prehen ive evaluation; urban ga