标准化降水指数SPI分布函数适用性研究.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2013, 2, 33-41 doi:10.12677/jwrr.2013.21006 Published Online February 2013 (/journal/jwrr.html) Applicability of Standardized Precipitation Index with * Alternative Distribution Functions Xingjun Hong, Shenglian Guo, Yanlai Zhou State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Email: hongxingjun1989@ Received: Nov. 24th th rd , 2012; revised: Dec. 16 , 2012; accepted: Dec. 23 , 2012 Abstract: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) can be applied to multiple time-scales and Gamma distribu- tion is suggested to compute SPI values. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 13 meteorological sta- tions in the Poyang Lake basin from 1961 to 2001, three distribution functions (Gamma, Pearson Type Ⅲ and Normal) are adapted to fit long-term precipitation series on different time-scales of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used to decide which distribution function could fit cumula- tive precipitation series better. The SPI values of different time scales are calculated by these three distribu- tion functions and compared by using Pearson correlation coefficient and Nash efficiency coefficient. It is concluded that the Pearson Type Ⅲ distribution is the best for fitting precipitation data series. It is also found that for SPI values with 12 or 24-month cumulative precipitation data series, there is little difference between distribution functions, in which the average Pearson correlation coefficients and Nash efficiency co- efficient