bayesian approach to zero-inflated bivariate ordered probit regression model, with an application to tobacco use贝叶斯方法zero-inflated二元有序概率单位回归模型,与烟草使用的应用程序.pdfVIP

Hindawi Publishing Corporation Journal of Probability and Statistics Volume 2012, Article ID 617678, 26 pages doi:10.1155/2012/617678 Research Article Bayesian Approach to Zero-Inflated Bivariate Ordered Probit Regression Model, with an Application to Tobacco Use Shiferaw Gurmu1 and Getachew A. Dagne2 1 Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, P.O. Box 3992, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA 2 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33612, USA Correspondence should be addressed to Shiferaw Gurmu, sgurmu@ Received 13 July 2011; Revised 18 September 2011; Accepted 2 October 2011 Academic Editor: Wenbin Lu Copyright q 2012 S. Gurmu and G. A. Dagne. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of bivariate ordered probit regression model with excess of zeros. Specifically, in the context of joint modeling of two ordered outcomes, we develop zero- inflated bivariate ordered probit model and carry out estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Using household tobacco survey data with substantial proportion of zeros, we analyze the socioeconomic determinants of individual problem of smoking and chewing tobacco. In our illustration, we find strong evidence that accounting for excess zeros provides good fit to the data. The example shows that the use of a model that ignores zero-inflation masks differential effects of covariates on nonusers and users. 1. Introduction This paper is concerned with joint modeling of two ordered data outcom