基于季节性时间序列的物流企业货运需求预测研究及应用.pdfVIP

Management Science and Engineering 管理科学与工程, 2016, 5(1), 7-14 Published Online March 2016 in Hans. /journal/mse /10.12677/mse.2016.51002 Research and Application of Logistics Enterprise Freight Demand Forecasting Based on Seasonal Time Series Wei Luo, Xiaoping Fang School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha Hunan th th th Received: Feb. 19 , 2016; accepted: Mar. 5 , 2016; published: Mar. 9 , 2016 Copyright © 2016 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Freight volume forecasting is an important part of the reasonable logistics planning. In this paper, a historical freight volume of A company is regarded as research data, mainly basing on the trend extrapolation method and the seasonal decomposition method, establishing a single model and a combination model. Discussion on the time series of short-term forecasting is a direct curve or “remove” seasonal before fitting. For the trend model, there are two choices: One is polynomial model; another is Logistic model. While assuming the influence of monthly seasonal factors is same. We could build four predictive models ultimately, compare the goodness of fitting, then chose the best one. The result demonstrates that the combination model is better than the single model. Keywords Trend Extrapolation Method, Seasonal Decomposition Method, Logistic Model, Freight Volume Forecasting 基于季节性时间序列的物流企业货运需求预测 研究与应用 罗 维，方晓平 中南大学交通运输工程学院，湖南 长沙 文章引用: 罗维, 方晓平. 基于季节性时间序列的物流企业货运需求预测研究与应用[J]. 管理科学与工程, 2016, 5(1): 7-14. /10.126