research on the risk associated with rural drinking water safety based on catastrophe theory研究风险基于突变理论的农村饮用水安全.pdf

Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2011, 3, 356-362 doi:10.4236/jwarp.2011.36045 Published Online June 2011 (/journal/jwarp) Research on the Risk Associated with Rural Drinking Water Safety Based on Catastrophe Theory 1 *1,2 2 3 Chao Wang , Fu-Quan Ni , Yu Deng , Lin-Lin Jiang 1College of Information and Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya ’an, China 2Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environmental Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya ’an, China 3College of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China E-mail : nfq 1965@163.com Received March 25, 2011; revised April 28, 2011; accepted June 1, 2011 Abstract In this study, based on the analysis of the catastrophic risk of rural drinking water, with the representative villages in Ya’an as study objects and setting the four evaluation standards: water quality, water quantity, the Guarantee Probability for water Supply and the Convenience Level of the Access to Water Supply as the ba- sic framework, a Rural Drinking Water Safety Assessment was developed (RDWSA). Research showed that Catastrophe Theory was applicable in the RDWSA. Adding RDWSA based on Catastrophe Theory to the supportive system for decision-making in Ecological Hydrographic Management Decision Support System of Ya’an helped obtain the rank and results of RDWSE by the automatic calculation of programs, which could assist the risk assessment and risk management associated with rural drinking water in Ya’an. Keywords: Catastrophe Theory, Risk, Rural Drinking Water Safety, Ya’an 1. Introduction quan