第五章 决策（The fifth chapter decision making）.doc

第五章 决策（The fifth chapter decision making） The fifth chapter decision making Content of courses Section 1 basic theory of decision making Second section, decision method The third section, case analysis, thinking and homework questions Teaching purpose: 1, grasp the decision-making theory and methods, and through case discussion and analysis, grasp the application of theory and methods. 2. Master the theory of planning and target management, and improve the students ability to analyze problems through case studies. Teaching emphasis: Decision theory, method and application. Application analysis of planning and target management. Teaching difficulties: Mastery of decision methods. Application of decision theory. Teaching methods: multimedia demonstration, teaching, problem discussion, inspiration and so on. Introduction: the world famous Chrysler Corporation, second only to General Motors and Ford motor company, in September 1979 the loss of $700 million giant, enterprises face the risk of bankruptcy. The reason is that when the worldwide oil crisis arrives, Chrysler still produces big, fuel guzzling cars, causing a huge backlog of cars. The company appointed general manager of Ford Motor Co Iacocca presided over the work, because the company decisively apply for loans to the government, firing tens of thousands of workers and product modification and other major decisions, and finally make the company around Chrysler. The decision is correct and error related to the organization and the cause of the rise and fall, therefore, carefully study the scientific decision must be a manager, master the scientific methods and techniques of decision theory, decision making, and find out the key, in a multitude of things in balance, timely and feasible decision-making right. Section 1 basic theory of decision making I. evolution of decision theory 1. classic decision making theory (normative decision theory) Before 1950s, based on the hypothesis of economic man. The purpose of d