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hirsch index and truth survival in clinical research赫希指数在临床研究和真理的生存
Hirsch Index and Truth Survival in Clinical Research
1 1 2 1 1
Thierry Poynard *, Dominique Thabut , Mona Munteanu , Vlad Ratziu , Yves Benhamou , Olivier
Deckmyn2
ˆ ´ ´ ´ ˆ `
1 University Pierre et Marie Curie Assistance Publique Hopitaux de Paris Liver Center, Service d’Hepato-Gastroenterologie, Groupe Hospitalier Pitie-Salpetriere, Paris,
France, 2 Biopredictive, Paris, France
Abstract
Background: Factors associated with the survival of truth of clinical conclusions in the medical literature are unknown. We
hypothesized that publications with a first author having a higher Hirsch’ index value (h-I), which quantifies and predicts an
individual’s scientific research output, should have a longer half-life.
Methods and Results: 474 original articles concerning cirrhosis or hepatitis published from 1945 to 1999 were selected. The
survivals of the main conclusions were updated in 2009. The truth survival was assessed by time-dependent methods (Kaplan
Meier method and Cox). A conclusion was considered to be true, obsolete or false when three or more observers out of the six
stated it to be so. 284 out of 474 conclusions (60%) were still considered true, 90 (19%) were considered obsolete and 100
(21%) false. The median of the h-I was = 24 (range 1–85). Authors with true conclusions had significantly higher h-I
(median = 28) than those with obsolete (h-I = 19; P = 0.002) or false conclusions (h-I = 19; P = 0.01). The factors associated
(P,0.0001) with h-I were: scientific life (h-I = 33 for.30 years vs. 16 for,30 ye
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