土地投资决策实物期权理论述评.pdf

第24 卷 第9 期 中国土地科学 Vol.24 No.9 2010 年9 月 China Land Science Sep.,2010 土地投资决策的实物期权理论述评 1 1 2 王 媛 ，贾生华 ，张 凌 （1. 浙江大学管理学院，浙江杭州310058；2. 浙江大学建工学院，浙江杭州310058） 摘要：研究目的：评述探讨实物期权理论在土地投资领域的应用。研究方法：文献资料法和比较分析法。研究结果：实物 期权理论多运用无套利方法和随机动态规划方法，主要议题集中在城市空地开发和土地用途转换问题。研究结论：（1）土 地期权理论对市场不确定条件具有较好的解释力；（2）未来研究应致力于考虑地区政策对期权模型的修正，并重点开展 基于微观数据的实证研究。 关键词：土地经济；投资；实物期权；综述；不确定性 中图分类号：F301.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001- 8158（2010）09- 0076- 05 Review on Real Option Theory of Land Investment Decision 1 1 2 WANG Yuan ，JIA Sheng- hua , ZHANG Ling （1. School of Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; 2. Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China） Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to review and discuss the application of the real option theory in the field of land investment. Methods employed include documentation and comparative analysis. The results indicate: （1）mostly methods of non- arbitrage and stochastic dynamic programming are used by the real option theory; （2）the main topics of discussion are concentrated in the problems of urban vacant land development and land conversion. It is concluded: （1） the option theory has comparatively strong explanatory power on the uncertainty of markets; （2）the future researches could focus on the modification of real option theory function in term of regional policies, and especially focus on the empirical study based on micro level data. Key words: land economy