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The Beginning of System Dynamics by Jay W. (系统动力学的杰伊·W的开始。)
D-4165-1 1
The Beginning of System Dynamics
by
Jay W. Forrester
Germeshausen Professor Emeritus
Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
Banquet Talk
at the international meeting of the
System Dynamics Society
Stuttgart, Germany
July 13, l989
2 D-4165-1
This evening I have been asked to give not a technical talk but a very
personal recollection of how I came to develop the field of system dynamics.
There are two threads that ran through the history. First, everything I have ever
done has converged to become system dynamics. Second, at many critical
moments, when opportunity knocked, I was willing to walk through the open door
to what was on the other side. Let me discuss this combination of past experience
and the turning points that led from one stage to the next.
I grew up on a cattle ranch in Nebraska in the middle of the United States.
A ranch is a cross-roads of economic forces. Supply and demand, changing prices
and costs, and economic pressures of agriculture become a very personal,
powerful, and dominating part of life. Furthermore, in an agricultural setting, life
must be very practical. It is not theoretical, it is not conceptual without purpose.
One works to get results. It is full-time immersion in the real world. In high
school, I built a wind-driven electric plant that provided our first electricity. That
was a very practical activity. Whe
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