1 保护综合实时故障概率 - 电测与仪表.docVIP

基于保护实时故障模型的电网脆弱环节在线辨识 栾思维，, 成都 610065） 摘要：脆弱环节辨识对预防大停电事故的发生具有重要意义。实现，提出了基于保护故障模型的脆弱环节在线方法。历史统计信息状态离散的Markov保护时变故障概率模型此基础上，了误动概率与拒动概率变化情况故障传播模拟，保护故障事件集，并风险理论结合保护故障概率与故障后果保护脆弱度衡量了保护故障对电网脆弱性的影响以此系统脆弱环节。结果验证了方法的有效性与合理性 关键词：保护故障；脆弱环节在线辨识 中图分类号：TM773 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-1390（201）00-0000-00 On-line identification of vulnerable links in power grid based on protection real-time fault model Luan Siwei, Lv Feipeng (School of Electrical Engineering and Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China) Abstract：Timely and effective identification of vulnerable links in power grid is important to prevent the occurrence of large-scale blackouts. To achieve this process, an identification method of vulnerable links based on the real-time fault model of protection was proposed. A probability model of protection fault was established according to historical protection system statistics and continuous time discrete state Markov process, and on this basis, quantifying the real-time probability of failure to operate and undesired trip of protection reasonably by considering real-time operating conditions of power grid. The protection fault events was established by simulating the protection fault and operation mode according to the spread characteristic of failures, and defining the protection fault vulnerability by applying risk theory to combine the probability of protection fault with the consequences of fault, weighing the impact of protection fault on the grid vulnerability, thus the system vulnerable links can be identified. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the method. Keywords：power system, protection real-time fault, protection fault vulnerability, vulnerable links, on-line identification0 引言 随着我国电力行业的迅猛发展，电力系统的容量与规模持续扩大，其复杂程度不断提升的同时也相应地导致了安全稳定性的下降，而近年来国内外频发的大停电事故[1-2]，也为我国电力行业的安全发展敲响了警钟。从这些事故原因分析中可以看到，电力系统的大停电事故往往是由电网中一个环节的故障引起另一个环节的相继故障，进而导致一系列连锁故障反应的发生。因此，寻找一种及时辨识电网中脆弱环节的有效方法成为目前国内外电力安全领域研究的热点，对电网的安全