人民币汇率升值我国纺织业贫困化增长相关性分析.docVIP

中国政法大学 本 科 生 毕 业 论 文 人民币汇率升值与我国纺织业贫困化增长的相关性分析 学 号：2008811105 论文编号： 姓 名：曾矗杨 学 院：商学院 专 业：国际商务 指导教师：胡明 完成时间：2012年3月 论文成绩： 人民币汇率升值与我国纺织业贫困化增长的相关性分析 [摘要] 1995年,中国纺织业不平凡的一年。从此开始，纺织业逐渐成为我国第一大出口行业。但是，近些年来，我国纺织品行业利润不断缩水，行业利润由8%直降至5%。欧债危机后，欧美国家债台高筑，人民币汇率自2005年后不断突破几大整数关口，纺织品出口价格优势一再被削弱，贸易条件不断恶化。作为我国初级产品出口代表的纺织业，其近些年来的发展状况基本上符合了巴格瓦蒂的“贫困化增长理论”。本文就是研究我国纺织业贫困化增长的长期趋势与人民币汇率升值之间的相关性，文中采用计量经济学格兰杰因果关系检验的方法，用纺织品服装业的贸易条件来衡量其贫困化增长的长期趋势，通过计量经济学检验印证人民币汇率升值是造成我国纺织业贫困化增长的格兰杰原因，最后提出简单的对策建议。 [关键词] 人民币汇率 贫困化增长 相关性 纺织业贸易条件 格兰杰因果关系 Correlation Analysis of the RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation and Immiserizing Growth in China’s Textile Industry [Abstract] 1995 is an unusual year for Chinese textile industry , from now on beginning, textile industry has become the countrys first big export industry. But, in recent years, Chinas textile industry profits is shrinking and industry profits reduced from 8% to 5% . Due to the debt crisis, the European and American countries are heavily in debt, and the exchange rate of the Yuan constantly breakthroughs several big integer pass since 2005,so the textile export price advantage has been weakened, its trade conditions deteriorate. As our country exports of primary products on behalf of the textile industry, in recent years, its development basically consistent with the Bhagwati immiserizing growth theory. This paper is to study the long term trend of immiserizing growth in textile industry in our country and its correlation with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.This paper using econometrics granger causality test method, and .take textile clothing trade conditions as the representative of immiserizing growth amount, through the econometric test ,confirms the RMB exchange rate appreciation is to result in the textile industry of immiserizing growth granger reason, finally puts forward some countermeasures and Suggestions. [Key words] The exchange rate of the Yuan Immiserizing growth