a random effect multiplicative heteroscedastic model for bacterial growth细菌生长的乘法异方差的随机效应模型.pdfVIP

Cao et al. BMC Bioinformatics 2010, 11:77 /1471-2105/11/77 METHODOLOGY ARTICLE Open Access A random effect multiplicative heteroscedastic model for bacterial growth 1 1* 2 Ricardo Cao , Mario Francisco-Fernández , Emiliano J Quinto Abstract Background: Predictive microbiology develops mathematical models that can predict the growth rate of a microorganism population under a set of environmental conditions. Many primary growth models have been proposed. However, when primary models are applied to bacterial growth curves, the biological variability is reduced to a single curve defined by some kinetic parameters (lag time and growth rate), and sometimes the models give poor fits in some regions of the curve. The development of a prediction band (from a set of bacterial growth curves) using non-parametric and bootstrap methods permits to overcome that problem and include the biological variability of the microorganism into the modelling process. Results: Absorbance data from Listeria monocytogenes cultured at 22, 26, 38, and 42°C were selected under different environmental conditions of pH (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.4) and percentage of NaCl (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5). Transformation of absorbance data to viable count data was carried out. A random effect multiplicative heteroscedastic model was considered to explain the dynamics of bacterial growth. The concept of a prediction band for microbial growth is proposed. The bootstrap method was used to obtain resamples from this model. An iterative procedure is proposed to overcome the computer intensive task of calculating simultaneous prediction intervals, along time, for bacterial growth. The bands were narrower below the inflection point (0-8 h at 22°C, and 0-5.5 h at 42°C), and wider to the ri