我国经济和社会发展中须重视石油峰值问题.PDF

Expert Forum专家论坛 我国经济和社会发展中必须 重视石油峰值问题 1 2 1 王 月 ，曹湘洪 ，冯连勇 （1.中国石油大学 （北京）工商管理学院，北京 102249; 2.中国石油化工集团公司，北京 100728） 摘要 :石油峰值 （Peak Oil）是指某一区域 （全球、地区、国家、油区等）石油产量的最 大值及其来临的时间。世界石油产量到达峰值并不意味着全世界已将石油消耗怠尽，也不意味着 人类不可能在地球上再发现新的油田，只是新发现的油田的石油产量越来越无法弥补已开发油田 产量的下降，世界石油供应量不可能再增加，不能满足人类日益增长的需求。许多研究表明世界 石油产量正在进入峰值平台期，随时都可能出现资源长期短缺的石油危机。我国的石油消费一直 以较快的速度增长，石油也许很快成为我国经济发展的瓶颈。本文提出了石油峰值——我国经济 和社会发展中必须重视的一个重大问题，希望大家尤其是主管部门和高层决策者充分认识石油峰 值的内涵和挑战，高度重视我国面临的潜在的石油危机，认真落实科学发展观、未雨绸缪，提早 采取应对策略以实现我国经济社会的可持续发展。 关键词:石油峰值;石油供给;石油危机 中图分类号:F407.22 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1003-2355(2009)04-0005-06 Abstr act : Peak oil is the maximum of oil pr oducti on in a regi on (an oil field, a country or the whole world) and at time when the maximum of production is reached . To reach the Peak Oil does not m ean that the world has run out of oil, or that a new oil field can not be found by human beings. Peak Oil m ean s that the oil production of newly discovered oil fields can not make up production decline of oil fields, and the world oil supply won ’t increase any more, which cannot meet human ’s demand for oil . Many studies show that global oil produ ct ion is r each in g the p eak p eri od , wh i ch m ay cau se oil cr isis at anyt im e in th e future . Ch in a ’s oil consumption has been increasing rapidly , and oil would become a bottleneck of China ’s economic development . The p ap er is about Peak Oila great issu e to China ’s economic and social developm ent . We, esp ecially government dep artm ent s and senior p olicy-makers, are exp ected to fully recognize the meaning of Peak Oil and challenge it brings to u s. We should attach great to the p otential oil crisis facing to us, seriou sly carry out t